The U.S. risks repeating China’s historical mistake of underestimating a rising competitor due to overconfidence in its own superiority. During the Qing dynasty, China viewed itself as inherently superior to the West and resisted learning from Western advancements. This arrogance contributed to its military defeats and subjugation during the “Century of Humiliation” (19th-20th centuries) [11][12].
Similarly, the U.S. has long seen itself as dominant in political, economic, and military realms since WWII, often underestimating China’s rapid rise and innovation. This delayed America’s recognition of China’s strategic challenge and allowed China to close critical gaps in technology and global influence [8][13]. Experts caution that this complacency echoes China’s earlier failure to adapt, risking strategic surprise and decline if the U.S. does not fully respect and respond to China’s capabilities [13][11][12].
In summary, both historical and contemporary cases illustrate the dangers of a superiority mindset that blinds great powers to emerging challenges. The U.S. must learn from China’s past mistake by acknowledging China’s strengths and adapting accordingly to avoid repeating the cycle of decline that China experienced [11][13][12].
Citations:
[1] The Cold War analogy’s misrepresentation of the essence of US … https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7659896/
[2] Strategic Competition and US–China Relations: A Conceptual … https://academic.oup.com/cjip/article/16/3/333/7209645
[3] The Silent Parallels of US-China Rivalry: A Clash of Power, Not … https://saisreview.sais.jhu.edu/the-silent-parallels-of-us-china-rivalry-a-clash-of-power-not-models/
[4] The U.S.-China Strategic Competition: Clues from History https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/us-china-strategic-competition-clues-history
[5] The Perils of a Cold War Analogy for Today’s U.S.-China Rivalry https://www.usip.org/publications/2025/06/perils-cold-war-analogy-todays-us-china-rivalry
[6] Advancing U.S.-China Coordination amid Strategic Competition – CSIS https://www.csis.org/analysis/advancing-us-china-coordination-amid-strategic-competition-emerging-playbook
[7] Analogy and Strategy: U.S.-China Competition through an … https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2021/08/analogy-and-strategy-u-s-china-competition-through-an-edwardian-lens/
[8] The Second Cold War: US-China Competition for Centrality in … https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14650045.2023.2253432
[9] Rethinking US-China competition: Next generation perspectives https://www.brookings.edu/articles/rethinking-us-china-competition-next-generation-perspectives/
[10] The Essence of the Strategic Competition with China https://www.16af.af.mil/Newsroom/Article/2389108/the-essence-of-the-strategic-competition-with-china/
[11] China’s Identity through a Historical Lens – Marine Corps University https://www.usmcu.edu/Outreach/Marine-Corps-University-Press/MCU-Journal/Journal-of-Advanced-Military-Studies-SI-2022/Chinas-Identity-through-a-Historical-Lens/
[12] The “Great Divergence” Redefined: the Rise and Fall of the West … http://www.inquiriesjournal.com/articles/917/3/the-great-divergence-redefined-the-rise-and-fall-of-the-west-and-the-recovery-of-china
[13] Addressing a Resurgent China: A New Mindset for Strategic … https://www.stimson.org/2025/addressing-a-resurgent-china-a-new-mindset-for-strategic-competition/