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Francis Fukuyama on the new leaderless global order | GZERO World with Ian Bremmer

Francis Fukuyama* and Ian Bremmer explore the mounting risk of a “G-Zero” world—a leaderless global order—as the United States steps back from its leadership role. This retreat creates power vacuums, raising the likelihood of instability and conflict.

Key Takeaways

  • The “G-Zero” World
    The most pressing geopolitical risk in 2025 is the emergence of a “G-Zero” world, where no single nation or group of nations can enforce international order.
  • U.S. Leadership in Decline
    The United States is losing its capacity to lead on the global stage, driven by deep political polarization and an inability to achieve bipartisan consensus.
  • Power Vacuums and Instability
    America’s retreat from its leadership role in the liberal world order has created power vacuums, increasing instability and enabling a resurgence of aggressive power politics.
  • The “America First” Effect
    Policies like Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda have accelerated the erosion of U.S. global leadership, leaving no clear alternative for managing international conflicts.
  • Geopolitical Risks vs. Major Conflicts
    While the risk of geopolitical crises has intensified, the probability of large-scale wars between major powers has diminished.
  • The U.S.–China Cold War
    A new Cold War between the United States and China is becoming increasingly likely, with tensions spreading beyond military and strategic sectors into broader economic spheres.

The Erosion of Liberal Democracy
The deterioration of liberal democratic norms—such as the rule of law and respect for institutions—poses one of the greatest threats to global stability.

*Francis Fukuyama is most famous for his influential 1989 essay and subsequent 1992 book, "The End of History and the Last Man." In these works, Fukuyama argued that the end of the Cold War marked the triumph of liberal democracy and free-market capitalism as the final form of human government. He posited that history, understood as the ideological evolution of governance, had reached its endpoint with the global ascendancy of liberal democratic ideals.

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