Professor Kenneth Lieberthal is one of America’s leading authorities on China’s political system. He served President Clinton as a special assistant for national security affairs and senior director for Asia on the U.S. National Security Council. Among his many accomplishments, Ken Lieberthal has served from 2009 to 2012 as the director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution. He has a Chinese name (李侃如) and is the author or editor of nearly two dozen books on China.
In this interview conducted by David Barboza of THE WIRE, Lieberthal’s comments were exceptionally candid and forthright. Here are excerpts from the interview:
“The United States – from Nixon through Obama – was neither “soft” nor “naïve” about Beijing or the CCP. A revisionist history now suggests that successive administrations simplistically assumed that engagement would lead to democracy in China…. negotiations were typically tough and protracted, and “wins” were never easily achieved. “……..”I never met (a high level Chinese official) who didn’t assume that U.S. would disrupt their rise, that we ultimately would constrain them in every way we could. The lessons from their modern history taught them that strong countries would work against China’s interests.”
Regarding China’s entrance to the WTO: “Beijing did a tremendous amount in order to meet its obligations…. The reality is, China met most of its commitments, but there were areas where it did not, no question.”
“The shift of U.S. talent and resources from manufacturing to finances and digital technology began in the 1980s, and enhanced the ease and attractiveness of optimizing supply chains on a global basis. This ….. expanded opportunities for some major U.S. corporations but also led to job losses in various sectors and a ballooning trade deficit with China.”…”The U.S. adopted a very laissez-faire approach and did a very inadequate job of protecting our workers from the devastation of seeing their jobs go overseas. It could have invested more in our domestic infrastructure, provided better support for upgrading American workers’ skills, and adopted stronger measures to counter the illegal subsidies China was providing to various industries and its theft of intellectual property.”
On TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) and BIT ( Bilateral Investment Treaty) which were designed to contain China, “As of early 2016, Obama’s Administration had gotten very far on TPP and was also well along on the BIT.” However. Trump subsequently pulled the U.S. out of TPP, “The political dynamics at the conclusion of the Obama Administration effectively left important opportunities open to China to expand its influence over trade in Asia, which Beijing has skillfully pursued.”
On Xinjiang and alleged genocide: “I traveled to Xinjiang for the first and only time in 2017. Frankly, I was astonished at the pervasive, in-your-face repression that was everywhere in evidence. There was nothing subtle about it. It was awful. Since then, China has implemented huge additional coercive measures to suppress Uighur identity and religious practices. I believe Xi Jinping is genuinely concerned about terrorism originating in Xinjiang. I do not think that is fake at all. But his measures could well be creating longer term problems there. I personally do not regard this as amounting to “genocide.” To me, genocide is literally the physical elimination of a people. Xi’s policies in in Xinjiang are certainly a powerful effort at cultural genocide, but not mass physical extermination. So frankly, if I were Tony Blinken, I would not have said…. that we are witnessing genocide. As of now, I believe the U.S. is the only country in the world to apply that term to Xinjiang. But still, what’s going on there is horrendous.”
On Xi Jinping, “whether Xi’s Draconian measures will facilitate or inhibit his overarching strategic goals of enabling China to become a high income, technologically innovative, internationally respected major power is at this point very uncertain. I have serious doubts on that score.”
On Biden’s handling of the challenges with China: “I had hoped for a more professional, pragmatic, interest-based set of China policies after the chaos of the Trump years. But while the Biden administration has made more consistent efforts to improve relations with allies and partners, it has failed in my view to develop a forward-looking strategy toward China itself…..It is pegging the U.S. approach to China primarily in terms of “competition….While China is pursuing very active bilateral and multilateral trade and investment policies, the Biden administration seems frightened to take any meaningful trade initiatives in Asia….The U.S. should be doing some very tough analysis of what it will take to avoid a war with China…and, Finally, perhaps the most important thing the U.S. can do to handle its challenges with China is to get our own domestic house in order.”
Joel